Transport Analysis is a government agency with the mission to develop knowledge that supports the Swedish transport policy. Within the framework of a government commission with the aim of producing a Swedish aviation strategy towards 2040 Kairos Future supported the government agency Transport Analysis with trend analysis. What trends and global changes will affect the future of aviation in Sweden?
In 25 years time a lot can happen and it was important to include both the relatively safe developments and potential "game changers". What role would the development of other means of transportation play in the future? Where will people live? What role will Sweden have as hub in the north, and which airlines would dominate 2040? How competitive will the country be, and how connected will it be to the outside world? The geopolitical developments were also relevant, as well as environmental technology and future fuels.
Kairos Future trend database with statistics and reports on hundreds of topics were supplemented with research specific to the issue. An important starting point in this work were forecasts of future economic development, global travel and research in fields such as demography, technology, consumption, etc.
For us it was important to get an outside perspective, says Backa-Fredrik Brandt, Transport Analysis. Kairos Future prompted us to put our own perspective in a different context. It was very valuable for us that they pointed out possible game changers that may change the existing trends fundamentally.