Do we take growth for granted?
Is the endless story of infinite growth coming to an end? For 250 years, growth in every sense of the word has been synonymous with the capitalist success story – is the story over?
Is the endless story of infinite growth coming to an end? For 250 years, growth in every sense of the word has been synonymous with the capitalist success story – is the story over?
Did you like a nice shirt on Instagram or TikTok but commented that you would prefer it in green? Imagine that your idea is picked up, quickly produced and delivered to you by Postnord's delivery robot Hugo already two days later. Welcome to a world of RADICAL retail.
The Internet hit the mainstream in 1993 with the launch of the first graphical browser, Mosaic. Things really took off the following year with the launch of Netscape Navigator in October 1994. But despite the availability of easy-to-use Web browsers, it took time for the general public to get access to computers and Internet connections via modems, and to start e-mailing and surfing.
What will shopping be like in 2030? Today, we observe a boom in technologies that enable personalized experiences, mixing of the virtual and physical as well as automation of many service steps in the customer journey. Technology is enabling a new generation of store experiences, and they are making shopping both more exciting and involving and, in addition, almost friction free.
Today, we are in the middle of the third retail revolution, characterized by automation, social involvement, and embeddedness. Shoppers and communities are increasingly becoming co-creators, and the physical world is merging with the digital, which is on its way to manifest in the metaverse. This shift is happening in parallel with a dire need to adapt practices to the limits of life and resources of our planet.
Issues of sustainability have always affected societies, albeit in different shapes and forms. Whether it was the wood crisis that plagued our early industrialization or the ozone crisis, we are constantly dealing with the impacts of our consumption. Now that we have “gone global” since the 1990's, sustainability is taking on an even more complex shape. The next decades will see the emergence of new environmental and sustainability issues. What can we expect in the future?
What if you could read the minds of a thousand entrepreneurs and see what their visions for the future are? What insights could you gain? What if you could also know who is receiving investments from leading venture capital firms? In this article, we describe how you can use startup landscapes to better prepare for the future, with blockchain startups as an example.
The last few years have seen a series of uncertainties in the world of work. Digital disruption was followed by a pandemic and in its aftermath, the leadership in organizations worldwide must deal with an increasingly hybrid work life. At the same time, growing sustainability requirements and a rocky labor market combined with a war in Ukraine is setting the stage for a turbulent world that disturbs supply chains and creates anxiety among both customers and employees.
All organizations live in a landscape of obligations and opportunities, and as that landscape changes, so do the skill requirements of the management teams who are tasked with leading the business. In this article, we take a closer look at the competences that digitalization will require of each member of the future competent management team.
2022 will be a year whose major features are familiar and not particularly surprising. The fast and slow shifts underway will continue in full force throughout the year. 2022 will be primarily marked by the complexity and uncertainty that arises as companies and organizations manage the transformation they are forced to adapt to. Our take on the overall trend for 2022 can be boiled down to: "life is complicated, but not spectacular".
A successful strategy helps organizations shape their own future and avoid surprises. A robust strategy takes its cue from changes in the world, helps achieve the organization’s vision and leverages all its assets. TAIDA is a model and a methodology, as well as a process for developing future-proof strategies and acting on them. This article describes the components of the model and how it can be used in practice. In addition, we provide our top tips for a successful strategy process.
The world around us is full of clues. They point us to changes that may happen in the coming years and decades and could alter the rules of the game for many. Entire industries can be revolutionized by what a small company does in a garage. Given that these revolutions seem to be accelerating, organizations have developed special tools to stay ahead of the game.
The Department of Atlántico has a strategic and unique position in northern Colombia. Its capital Barranquilla is the seaport to Colombia, as it sits on the Magdalena River outlet facing the Caribbean Basin and the Atlantic Ocean. It also has important industries, for example in agribusiness. As for any region, Atlántico is subject to tough competition and thus needs to develop its capabilities.
The signs are everywhere. We've taken a big leap in digitalization during the pandemic, especially in our daily lives. We shop, work, and hold meetings online to an extent not imagined as late as two years ago. Studies show that firms and organizations that were ahead in digitalization at the eve of the pandemic have pulled ahead even more since then. Those who've put off their digitalization efforts struggle to catch up, causing what we call "digital anxiety" – an affliction affecting actors in all industries. The question they ask themselves is a broad one: How can we use digitalization to create better and more relevant offers for our customers?
For almost ten years, digital assistants like Siri have been able to give us answers to simple questions. But for a long time, we've lacked the tools that can really help analysts and experts quickly get through large masses of text or to automate research work. But now, those days are gone. At Kairos Future, we have been using the latest AI methods for over ten years in order to streamline research work and create solutions for our customers. Now, those methods are also available to others. And shortly, we can all have our own personal research bot. In fact, it’s already almost here.
Kairos Future welcomes the global tech company Nexer as majority shareholder to accelerate the journey towards the core vision – a world where everyone puts future first. The news was released in multiple media last week. An unexpected choice for some, a clear decision for us. Here is the analysis underlying it.
In the light of last year's events, many wonder if planning for the long-term is worth it. Many, if not most, were taken aback by just how much a virus could disrupt the "normal" state of the world. Back in February 2020, for example, the Swedish Public Health Agency predicted the impacts wouldn't significantly affect Sweden.
Switching between short-term and long-term planning is an art. Even though short-term perspectives seem overwhelming right now, companies still have a lot to gain from thinking long-term. For more than 25 years, Kairos Future has assisted companies and organizations in understanding and shaping their future. In this article, we’d like to provide you with some inspiration for how to do this ”long-term thinking” that everyone is talking about. It is precisely in periods of economic turbulence like this one it is needed the most.
The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has required most office-based workplace leaders to double down on future-thinking. After an optimistic spring in 2020 where a swift recovery seemed to be on the agenda, the prospects of virtual life are more real than ever, at least for a while longer. The overarching question many wrestle with is, of course: what happens when the pandemic is over? Will offices flourish as they did pre-pandemic, or will our new habits of working from home, dog-walking, and the absence of commuting hours keep people out of offices?
The manufacturing industry will undergo radical change over the next ten years. Of course, some smaller and niche manual manufacturing will prevail. But what about the rest? Who will survive the ever-growing competition brought by faster and more effective manufacturing? Are large corporations favored over medium-sized companies?
For the past six to eight months, after the coronavirus took over the agenda globally, the majority of people have been forced to change and alter their behaviors. ose who can are working from home, we have reduced our social network and started to meet up digitally instead, even our consumption habits have changed foregoing new clothes and shoes when we cannot go out. Opting instead for things that give us comfort – food, sweatpants, and other everyday luxuries. And not to forget, we don’t travel. At least not internationally.
Regardless of whether we think about the coming months, years or decades, much points in the direction of a tipping point. And tipping points often means existential crises. Old thinking needs to be replaced by something new. Old habits need to be thrown away and painful re-learning processes be started.
Covid-19 has accelerated a lot of trends, not least within digitalization and data analytics, which means that a lot of companies and organizations need to go through a digital transformation journey in the next couple of years. Transformation isn’t easy, sometimes even painful, the questions are many and the road ahead is often long and crocked.
While parts of business and society are now on a path towards establishing a “new normal”, for much of the tourism industry, crisis is still ongoing. The summer season has provided much‑needed income for several players, but the overall situation is far from stable, and it is unclear how many companies will be able to cope beyond the post-crisis support period. For some, looking forward, next summer feels unthinkably far ahead. In spite of this, it is worth thinking about the future of travel in general. How does it look? And how do we get there?
When we talk about fundamental human needs, we sometimes forget the need for challenge – the need to face trial, persevere, and prove one’s skill. Innumerable consultants point towards Maslow’s pyramid of needs to explain complex behaviors, pointing out that man does not live by bread alone but that humans also require context, confidence and self-actualization. Perhaps the most ubiquitous way to achieve the latter is overcoming difficulty. When the local sports team wins, when the puzzle is completed, when the summit has been reached – many live entirely for these feelings of victory. For many, the best is to experience victory as a team, overcoming challenges together.
To map the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on behavior and consumption, we’ve analyzed over ten million social media posts, in addition to other digital footprints (including app downloads and search statistics). The stories that people in Sweden and around the world share about the new reality they are in help us to understand how behaviors and consumption patterns are changing. Overall, we find that the crisis has accelerated ongoing behavioral changes, giving rise to new trends. Below are five selected insights from the study:
In the Swedish hospitality industry, people talk about “Black Friday”, Friday, March 13, 2020. That was when the cancellations began to roll in, after Sweden announced a ban on March 11 for gatherings of more than 500 people. The situation became progressively worse as regulations for social distancing tightened. An entire industry, which, in the face of crisis, would normally roll up its sleeves and get to work, soon found itself in a collective depression. Madeleine Brehmer, CEO of Sabis AB, shared her perspective on the situation in a LinkedIn post on March 25:
Kairos Futures surveys demonstrate that an ever-increasing number of organizations have found a new normal in the heart of an acute crisis and that many of those organizations gaze towards a future where everything has come back to normal and the wheels of the economy circulate once again. How should you think in order to arise stronger from this crisis and pinpoint your innovations now, as well as in the long run? Both of these aspects are important, and at the same time, they define the most crucial obstacle facing innovation for most organizations, namely: Finding a way to deliver the appropriate solution in an effective method here and now, but at the same time coping with producing the right services and products in the long run.
With an ongoing pandemic and a turbulent stock-market, most CEO’s and Managers are occupied with coping with these swift and harsh alterations. Leading in chaos is not only about keeping several balls in the air at the same time or choosing between plague or cholera. Leading in chaos is also about being able to see what comes after the disarraying now and to accumulate a readiness for what comes next. By doing so, one possesses the calming virtues necessary for instilling bravery and hope to the own organization, but also future preparedness by harnessing strategies for what comes next.
Generation Z – young people born between 1995 and 2005 – is a complex generation. They are very capable in gathering knowledge intelligently and are technically more equipped than any previous generation. However, they are fronting an adult life where man and machine need to collaborate side by side on a whole new level, where development goes so quickly that it might feel distressing. Generation Z gazes at their future work- life with fear and wonder. They put high demands on both the employer – and themselves – and are worried about not being able to do good enough. But they also have ambitions to shape a new world, with guiding ideals both in the small world and in the big world.
That Sweden is innovative is a message that is often hammered home, both here in Sweden and in the international press. We often place, if not at the top, then at least amongst the best, often in the company with such countries as neighboring countries, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Korea and Japan. Both in rankings produced by international organizations as well as in research reports on the subject.
Most of the world’s valuable information is unstructured. It exists in the form of texts, images, videos, and audio internally within organizations and externally across the vast digital information universe. It grows rapidly in size: the size of all digitally stored information has doubled in size every second year, and this growth is set to continue.
The demographic challenges for municipalities are frequently discussed – to make sure that seniors receive services they are entitled to. It is tempting to put hope in welfare technology, but there are still many other matters that require more research within the field. One can learn a lot from the seniors who are front runners in the use of digital tools. Kairos Future is tracking in an ongoing research project about how these seniors make their way through their everyday lives and what development projects they pursue themselves. What are their most valuable digital tools? What have been the most important changes in their homes during their lives? And, not to forget: What are the solutions they hope to see in a short time from now?
Generation Z – or GenZ - is the name of the young generation born between 1995 and 2005. By some people, they have been described as the ”hopeless generation”, and their values are influenced by the time after September 11th and the Climate Change awareness. We could also call them the “pragmatic generation”, since they literally go to direct action, though how and why they do it can vary very much.
13 SEK in the next twenty years – that’s the increase in taxation needed according to researcher Rolf Solli at the University of Borås if Sweden is to manage its social care needs. A challenge many countries are facing right now.
A new wave of automation is upon us. In light of these changes, we could end up with a lot more leisure than today – or a lot less. Very likely it will not be evenly distributed. However, automation, digitalization and new technology also mean more ways to spend our free time, regardless of how much of it we may have. ”Free time” is relatively new as a concept – as old as industrialization – and has looked much the same since the nineteenth century. But how might it look different in the future?
Artificial intelligence is opening up a new window into the digital traces that consumers have shared for several years, that we haven’t been able to interpret fully before. Now, new data-driven consumer insights and groundbreaking ways to work with segmentation are within reach.
From the days of the ”yellow press” to the clickbait and fake news of the 21st century – journalism has come far, but retains a complex relationship with attention, propaganda, and advertising. But will modern ’clickonomics’ really be a sustainable and reliable way to fund media operations in the long run – and if not, what sort of systems might take its place? What has changed in the world of media, and what changes might we expect in the future? And what will the journalist of the future really be like?
The 20th century was an incredible journey of increased equality, in Sweden, in the West, and eventually in the world at large. However, the past few decades have seen the trend turn around in many parts of the world.
Spotify has changed the core of the music industry. Skype has changed the perception of communication. Airbnb is the world’s biggest hotel chain and Uber the the world’s biggest taxi company, without owning neither hotels nor taxis.
From smart watches to sensors in our clothes – machines move closer and closer to our skin and soon, perhaps, all the way into our bodies. How does a society look in which digitally enhanced bodies become the norm?
The Swedish population statistic for 2018 has arrived, a highlight of the year for everyone with an interest in how municipalities and regions are developing populationwise.
FAR, the Swedish Tax Agency, Kairos Future, Visma, Fortnox and FAR members Deloitte, PwC, KPMG and Grant Thornton have been working on solutions inspired by the block chain for accounting, taxation, and auditing.
After the year of the awakening in 2018, the feeling of living in the final age is growing. Gone are easiness and cheerfulness. It is serious now, and absolutely no time for an ironic knee-slapper. Honored institutions are being challenged. Old agreements are being broken. Our mental freedom is under attack. Death knocks on the door and no one can escape its cold grip. Suddenly life itself seems to be on the line.
A career is not what it once was. 20 years ago the definition was clear: the objective was to become successful within a large organization or to create one’s own success as a self-employed entrepreneur. Often it came down to reaching a leader position, having a high salary, or a prestigious title. In some respects, this definition is applicable today, but only partially and not for everyone.
Throughout history, production and consumption have shaped our local communities. Centuries old organizational and social structures are now colliding with new technological achievements and living conditions. Each community is changing in unique patterns through combinations of gradual and revolutionary transformations.
In 2016, history was made. Lee Sedol, heralded as one of the most accomplished professional Go players of recent decades, was defeated by a rookie in front of 80 million spectators. While Sedol slumped in his chair, defeated and resigned, his opponent remained silent. How had experts, reporters, and even Sedol himself been so wrong in their predictions leading up to the match?
For years, innovation has been the top priority among many companies. No wonder considering that the rate of change is increasing in most industries and that business executives estimate the average lifespan of existing business models to be no more than 4 years.
Honorable 1. In accordance with or characterized by principles of honor; upright 2. Characterized by integrity: guided by a keen sense of duty and ethical conduct Synonyms: ethical, honest, just, righteous, upright
Every year, Kairos Future partners with a charitable organization with limited resources, offering them a contextual analysis pro bono. This week, 2018’s recipient of Kairos Future’s unique offer was announced: We Effect. During the partnership Kairos Future and We Effect will examine which trends affect Swedes’ future desire to donate money.
In 2001, the World Trade Center falls and shortly thereafter the US goes to war. In 2008, the world economy collapses in the wake of Lehman Brothers. In 2010 the Arab Spring sweeps across the Middle East, leading to conflict, a refugee crisis and humanitarian disaster. On top of all this, accelerating climate change brings about floods, hurricanes and forest fires in rapid succession. This is the only world the hopeless generation (Generation Z), born 1995-2005, have ever known. It isn’t too surprising they feel hopeless.
Everywhere one looks – from bus advertising to news editorials and online trolls’ posts, even as far as in the latest Disney movie The Incredibles 2 – the future of society and the role of its citizens is being discussed. But who is the citizen of the future?
Will a certification create innovation? No, unfortunately it isn't that simple. However, Research Institutes of Sweden (RISE) is launching the world’s first certification course for Innovation management professionals.
Tomorrow's digitized care-intensive home will involve a lot more actors and resources than today, with higher demands on coordination. With the needs of the individual in mind, the development of supply and logistics will have to ensure that medicines, medical tools and consumables are the delivered to the right place, at the right time.
Being human means being caught between two instincts – the desire to belong and the desire to stand out. In time, what this means is that something unique, deviant, differing or odd often becomes something regular, as more and more people begin following a trendsetter. But what determines whether something odd remains odd, or whether it becomes normalized and joins the ranks of the ordinary? What phenomena do we envy when they differ, which ones do we fear, which do we look down on? What is it that determines when something odd becomes orthodox – and is it the case that we’re becoming increasingly desensitized to what used to be shockingly different?
Lantmäteriet (the Swedish mapping, cadastral and land registration authority), SBAB, Landshypotek Bank, Telia, ChromaWay, Evry, Skatteverket (the Swedish tax agency), Svensk Fastighetsförmedling, and Kairos Future have presented a live testing of a blockchain solution for real estate transactions. During the seminar a fully digital real estate purchase was made. The solution can contribute to the savings of at least 500 billion Euro per year for Swedish real estate buyers, sellers, and borrowers.
In the future, customer dialogue will look much different in a transformed media landscape. Fast-paced digitalization brings new technological innovations, which impact how we communicate with our surroundings. New ways of communicating with our technical devices, such as voice, and new platforms for customer dialogue in Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality, will impact the customer buying process and create new marketing channels. With increasing amounts of customer data, Artificial Intelligence will create new possibilities for individualization of the customer dialogue. But as the debate around data collection on social media continues, will integrity beat convenience in the future?
For centuries mankind has dreamed about the future; dreamed, and speculated, and invented. Science fiction is the meeting between scientific reality and fictive speculation, but it has real value when it comes to understanding how people view, understand, and relate to their future. By now a venerable branch of literature after at least 200 years, the tricks and tools of the science fiction writer have become useful for more than just entertainment and diversion. These methods offer powerful ways of understanding the immediate and long-term future for a business or an organization.
In recent year, we have received many requests from companies who want to understand how they can benefit from AI in their business. Some of them have set up a costly IT infrastructure to work with AI and large-scale data analysis, but have not found applications and working methods which yield a return on investment. Others are unsure how to get started with working with AI, and what value there is.
In a world where digital tools, processes and strategies are adopted by more and more organizations, the border between digital and analog work is rapidly blurring. But are companies prepared for this transition? How should a leader manage this rapid digitalization, and what can be done to remain competitive?
The revolution is around the corner! After over a hundred years of incremental development in transportation solutions we can now see a shift towards more radical development – a transportation revolution. A new era in which digitali-zation, big data and the sharing economy will alter the underlying logic of new services and products within the transportation sector.
May is the month millions of people throughout the western world plan their summer holidays. Chances are you're in the middle of planning your own right now? Maybe you work in tourism or hospitality? This article is about those industries and the rapid changes they're goin through right now. Let's have a look behind the scenes.
Until now, the digitalisation of the healthcare domain – of medical records and of various administrative systems – has meant various problems regarding integration and difficulties when it comes to efficiency and ease of use. The block chain could be a solution.
Innovation is the new black. But how will we innovate in the future? If we look a little further ahead there are five innovation trends that are hot right now. What implications do they have for your organisation?
Digitization is scaling up to a whole new level and these shifts may, in turn, bring dramatic changes to the very foundation of the business landscape, also known as disruptive change.
Who are they actually, the youth and young adults of today? And what will they do when they take over?
The Swedish Land Registry, ChromaWay and Kairos Future have investigated the possibilities with the blockchain technology for real estate transactions.
European research project to increase engagement in environmental issues
Industrial society, in its traditional form, is predicated on the idea that raw materials and industrial inputs are cheap and plentiful. So cheap, in fact, that the old habits of farmers to carefully reuse everything finally gave way to far more cavalier attitude towards physical resources. But today, that assumption is looking more and more hollow, suggesting that the old wisdom is due for a comeback. The potentially revolutionary concept is called circular economy – an economic system where materials move in closed loops. Development towards a circular economy is bolstered by both technological and economic factors like digitization and innovations in the service sector, and cultural changes like an increased focus on sustainability and a distaste for waste.
Something is changing. Over the past 50 years, space has never been more attractive than today.
In february 2015 we moved in to our new head office at Västra Järnvägsgatan 3 in Stockholm, at the very top of the building with great views that make room for even greater thoughts
The project Dragon Star Plus aims to stimulate research, development, and cooperation between companies and institutions in China and the EU.
Co:tunity in european research project aiming to increase engagement in environmental issues
The Co:tunity Breakfast webinars is new serie of short breakfast sharings for those working with innovation, marketing , product development, business strategy and trend analysis and will find place once or twice a month. Sign up, get your yummy breakfast and tune in on one, or both (its free!), of the upcoming breakfast webinars.
We are currently facilitating a scenario planning process for the Future of Sustainable Mining in central Chile until 2035 for the Chilean Mining Ministry, CORFO (The Chilean Economic Development Agency) and SONAMI (The Chilean Association of Mining Companies) and a broad group of stakeholders (environmental groups, NGO’s, local communities, sociologists and energy experts).