To Lead in Uncertain Times
After several turbulent years, many leaders are understandably fatigued by constant uncertainty and the feeling of working against the wind. Making difficult decisions such as layoffs is emotionally taxing, and it is common to experience a sense of Sisyphean effort when long‑term initiatives are suddenly paused or canceled. At the same time, some leaders find energy in disruption and see periods of crisis as moments for learning, renewal, and strategic clarity.
Without downturns, we would hardly appreciate upturns – just as spring in Sweden feels more welcome after a long and dark winter.
Today, leaders face uncertainties of genuine strategic importance for individuals, organizations, and societies. These uncertainties demand not only short‑term responses but thoughtful reflection on what different developments could mean over time. Prominent issues include ongoing geopolitical instability and its implications for security and supply chains, accelerating climate risks and the transition to sustainability, and the rapid diffusion of AI technologies reshaping work, productivity, and competitive advantage. In the near term, political shifts within the EU and globally continue to influence regulatory frameworks, investment priorities, and strategic room for maneuver.
No leader can know with certainty how an organization should respond to every aspect of an uncertain future. What leaders can do, however, is systematically explore possible futures in order to prepare for multiple plausible developments. In times of rapid change, the ability to look beyond the messy present and adopt a longer‑term perspective becomes a core leadership capability.
Understanding the Future with Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is a well‑established and well‑documented approach for exploring alternative futures. Kairos Future’s founder Mats Lindgren and former partner Hans Bandhold have authored influential work on scenario planning, used by universities and decision‑makers around the world. At its core, scenario planning combines curiosity about change with structured methods for identifying critical uncertainties and translating insights about the future into strategic action.
Rather than attempting to predict a single outcome, scenario planning helps organizations ask better questions: What could happen? What would it mean if it did? And how robust are our current strategies across different futures?
The Uncertain Future Is Near
Traditionally, scenario planning at Kairos Future has often looked ten, twenty, or even thirty years ahead. In today’s environment, however, the method has proven equally valuable for navigating the near future – months or a few years ahead – where uncertainty is high but strategic decisions cannot be postponed.
The future of any organization is shaped by two types of forces: developments we can assess with relatively high confidence, often referred to as trends, and developments that are inherently volatile and uncertain. A robust scenario process therefore begins with careful research to distinguish between what is largely predictable and what is not. The subsequent analysis should rest on a broad and well‑grounded evidence base.
However, in terms of uncertain trends, a good starting point is to acknowledge your uncertainty and be able to say "we are uncertain about how this will play out". Since most people who claim to know how the future will unfold are wrong (there are of course countless quotes about people who were wrong about the future, see for example Worst Tech Predictions Of All Time), we should instead take a more modest approach to the topic by asking "how can this develop and what are the different identifiable alternatives?
Scenarios as a basis for strategic work
Scenarios provide a powerful foundation for strategic dialogue and decision‑making. They can be used at an overarching level to explore the long‑term direction of an organization, or in a more focused way to address specific strategic questions within a particular business or policy domain.
Equally important is the process itself. Developing scenarios together helps organizations make sense of complexity, surface assumptions, and expand their collective imagination about what the future could hold – whether the time horizon is thirty years or thirty days. By systematically exploring both risks and opportunities, scenarios allow leaders to test strategic choices against different possible futures and to identify where greater flexibility or resilience is needed.
Scenario planning does not replace forecasting or quantitative analysis; rather, it complements them. While forecasts extrapolate existing trends, scenarios challenge prevailing mental models and prepare organizations for discontinuity. In doing so, they strengthen strategic confidence and improve the organization’s capacity to act decisively under uncertainty.
Beyond strategy, systematic future‑oriented work also affects organizational well‑being. When people share a clearer understanding of uncertainties and possible paths forward, anxiety tends to decrease and engagement increases. In a recent survey among Swedish leaders, we found that structured future work was associated with a stronger sense of direction and a more constructive workplace climate.
Feel free to contact me and I will tell you more about how it can be done in practice. In half a day you can get pretty far!
Johanna Danielsson Senior Advisor
Read more about our basic course in scenario analysis that is available on request.