Understanding the Future with Scenarios
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Spotify has fundamentally transformed the music industry. Skype has changed our views of telecommunications and conversations. AirBnB is the world’s largest hotel chain and Uber is the world’s largest taxi operator, without owning any hotels or cars. There is a risk that the housing bubble in Sweden will burst. The energy landscape is rapidly changing at its foundations, due to home-produced power, new solar power, and smart grids. Greece is currently under the threat of a state bankruptcy. Although we said “never again”, we are currently seeing more migrant boat disasters in the Mediterranean and more signs of xenophobia in Europe. We now experience that local wars and conflicts of the World are at risk of spreading, and that the Earth is on the brink of a climate disaster.
Yes, we live in a world of increasing uncertainty and disruptive change in virtually every societal and business sector. These are genuine uncertainties of strategic importance, for individuals, organizations and nations. We all need to understand what can happen and what it may mean for our businesses and ourselves. But can we know anything about the future? No, we can never know in the true sense of the word. However, we can explore possible futures and create preparedness for what might happen. We can explore possible scenarios and the consequences of these, and in times of great uncertainty such explorations are more important than ever. Find out how to prepare for the future with scenarios in this article.
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