By Johanna Danielsson and Kajsa Ahlgren

 
The climate debate has questioned the sustainability of our increasing traveling. The economy is heading towards a downturn and a variety of other fac-tors like changing values and increasing consumer needs put pressure on an industry being used to success – but also tough times.      

by Mats Lindgren

Right now we are all experiencing some of the most dramatic weeks in world history. Never before has the entire world literally held its breath in a single drama with an uncertain outcome.

Tomorrow’s health consumers – individualists with no illusions

Swedes have no illusions when it comes to public provision of preventative medicine and the treatment of illness, which are generally referred to as health and health care. Most of them currently see it as a right, but few of them believe it will be so ten years from now. The image of the future is almost identical regardless of political party sympathy; most rights to health care will be limited, and at the same time there will be a right to choose to pay for better care. This future picture also applies for left wing voters, according to a study of tomorrow’s health care consumers carried out by Kairos Future.
 

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Please contact project leader Mr Mats Olsson for further information!

ENERGY SHORTAGE – THE MAIN THREAT TO GLOBAL GROWTH

On two occasions, in 2005 and 2008, Kairos Future has asked its Futuretrackers community about what they think of the future development of the world. Futuretrackers is a global network of experts representing various disciplines, sectors, managerial levels and different political orientations. By participating in surveys on different topics these experts receive a summary from each survey in return.

What trends will have the largest impact on the global economic outlook over the coming years and which organizations are most likely to have a positive impact? These are examples of questions that we have sought to answer in our Global Growth Surveys. The results could be summarized briefly as followed:

• While terrorism was the most imminent negative trend in 2005 it is the problem with energy supplythat’s on people’s minds today. Evidently these results reflect a shift in what issues that are most publicly exposed and debated. It seems as if the challenge of how we can protect our world from the negative effects of climate change has overridden terrorism as the most crucial global problem. However, increasing economic growth in countries such as India and China is the most important trend of all. The diagram below shows the ten most important trends that our experts believe will impact global growth in a 10-year perspective.

• If China and India are the hopes for the future and energy shortage is the main threat – who has got the power to make a change? Just as in 2005, it is representatives of the private business world that are perceived to have the greatest chances of positively influencing growth. Interestingly, politics fall way behind.

• In the survey in 2005, Japan was the country of the future; both Japanese business and government were perceived to be the best prepared for the future. Today, Western Europe has climbed the ranking and is challenging Japan, at least on the governmental side. North America, on the other hand, is losing ground. In general, the scores for business and government are low, indicating that our experts are skeptical of the capabilities of actors from both the private and political world.

• On a personal level, respondents are very optimistic about the future, while, just as in previous studies of Kairos Future, they believe in a pretty grim future for the world in general.

Diagram 1. What impact will the following trends have on global growth over the next 10 years if they continue/materialize? (Answers 6 & 7 on a 7-grade scale where 7 is ”very strong impact”). NB. The diagram only shows the ten most highly ranked trends, out of a list with 20.

CONTACT

If you want to know more about the Global Growth Surveys or about the Futuretrackers network, please contact Ms. Elin Åström.

Kairos Future has conducted a survey on today’s top management’s views on the generational shift and on the future leadership roles. The survey was done in collaboration with Michaël Berglund Executive Search. We present the main findings in this article written by Ulf Boman and Anna Eldestrand!  

Read the whole article here! 

By Dr. Mats Lindgren
For thousands of years, humans have made up scenarios, trying to explore not yet realized futures. Man is by definition a scenario-planning creature. We have been “creating” the future in our minds, exploring consequences of other’s actions as well as our own.

Nevertheless, most organizations are fairly poor scenario planners. They do not explore the uncertainties in the surrounding world and their potential consequences – threats and opportunities – for their own business. At least not in a systematic way, and definitely not on a continuous basis.

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Become a Scenario Strategist! We offer a course on Scenario Planning in English! Read more and register here!

By Marie Skov Christensen

In a time of extremely low unemployment and increasing sick leave the welfare of the workforce is more crucial than ever. We face a situation with lack of skilled and unskilled staff and companies that search for new employees abroad. Meanwhile the expectations for economic growth in Europe are reduced.  

This is very much reflected at the Danish job market and calls for initiatives and solutions.

A survey carried out by Kairos Future in six European countries, including Denmark, focuses on the age group 30 to 50 year-olds. How is this generation able to meet their own high ambitions, the increasing demands from employers and still lead a balanced life?

The survey paints a picture of the Danes as generally positive and optimistic people but still the generation faces the cost of high ambitions in all aspects of life.

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Anna Kiefer writes about environmental issues that are now in focus more than ever. The UN Conference on Climate Change was held on Bali 3-14 December 2007 with participants from over 180 countries, putting the environment as top priority on everybody’s agenda. The 2007 Nobel peace prize was awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Al Gore for their efforts to build up knowledge about climate change, and measures needed to counteract such change. But how is the political agenda reflected in the attitudes of the young people who will shape our future? Kairos Future’s survey of youth values and lifestyles indicates that environmental pollution is a problem for everyone and no one.

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CHINESE YOUTH - Down to earth people reaching for the stars

By: Ms. Anna Kiefer 

Young middle-class Chinese are very optimistic about the future and they have great plans. Important in life is to have a prosperous career, high
status and earn a lot of money. Material possessions and fame are much
more important to young middle-class Chinese than to Europeans. At the
same time they emphasize the importance of spiritual values and they
are anxious to blend in. They want to be similar to their friends and
it is almost as important to live up to other people’s expectations as
your own. This dual loyalty is perhaps a result of the one-child policy.

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Read more about the survey Global Youth!

By: Mr. Per Florén

Situational analysis and futures analysis help organizations and people to act more realistically, preventatively and efficiently. Those who understand what may materialize get a head-start that can generate benefits and makes their own organizations better prepared, increasing their margins. This is valid for companies that are subject to competition in an open market as well as public organizations and NGOs. In this article, the basics of successful situational analysis and futures analysis are described.