Can technology development save our climate?
We are becoming increasingly aware of the threat that climate change implies both for us as individuals and for our whole society. But what do we need to do to cope with the growing discharge of greenhouse gases? Will new energy efficient techniques be enough? Or will we also have to change our lifestyles? Can we do it?
If we radically simplify our reality, we can summarize the total effect humanity has on nature and climate using the following formula:
Number of people x activity per person / efficiency = Effect
• The more people the larger the impact on our environment.
• The more active the average person is the more effect he or she tends to have on our environment. Naturally different activities have different effects, but most of the things we do, like cooking, taking a shower, working, consuming, and travel tend to consume more energy and use more resources the more active we are.
• Each and every use of energy and raw materials is not put to good use. Some of it is wasted. The less energy/raw-material-effective our processes are, the bigger the consumption gets when we, for instance, travel a certain distance or produce a certain amount of food. The efficiency in the moment is easy to measure, whereas the efficiency over whole life cycles is more complex. (For instance how much a car consumes per kilometer is easy to measure, compared to how much energy it consumes during its whole life cycle, including when it is produced and scrapped. According to some newspaper articles this spring, a luxury 4-wheel drive Hummer would be more energy efficient in a life cycle perspective than a Toyota Prius, which has an environmentally friendly feature.
If we decide to want to reduce the environmental /climate effect we have three principal ways of doing so:
- Reduce the number of people, which, in the short run, is not an option. In the long run, we do know that women have fewer children when they become more affluent and when they get more power over their lives.
- Reduce the average activity, with the exception of activities that do not have any effect on the climate/environment, for instance, walks. This point can hereafter be called life style changes.
- Increase energy efficiency by using more environmental / climate-efficient techniques. System optimizing. This point can from here on be called technique development, even if it contains an exchange of existing techniques, for instance, the exchange of an inefficient remote heating device in a house for a more efficient one.
We know that the number of people on Earth will continue increasing for a certain time. After 2050 the number will decrease, at least in Europe. This means that life style changes and technique development will have to compensate for the increasing number of people. We also know that the average activity level on our globe will continue to increase the whole time, partly because people in rich countries become more and more active (bigger cars, longer trips, bigger houses/apartments etc.), partly because more people will raise themselves out of poverty (both Chinese and Indian people will be able to afford motorcycles, cars, vacations, refrigerators, air conditioning etc.).
Research implies that it will not be that easy to influence one’s consumption of energy and raw materials by personal choices. (Sources: Torsten Österman, FSI, a research group for societal and information studies, Pernilla Jonsson, Kairos Future AB, formerly at the Stockholm School of Economics in Gothenburg.).This fact will place a larger responsibility on technical development.
Will technical development be able to balance both population development and life style changes? Or must we turn life style development around in order to slow down climate change? And if so, how do we handle the process? Shall it be voluntarily based? How will we handle those who refuse to take any part in this? There are many questions.
The answers to the questions will influence a great many areas, both in the private and public sectors. The final answer will no doubt take some time to emerge. Until then, this area will be one of the most important ones to follow for those who are interested in environmental analyses and issues of the future.
For more information, please contact senior consultant Mr. Per Florén!
