Publications
Since the start, our company has had the aim of apprehending changes, summarizing them and communicating them to clients and the broad general public – through our lectures, but also through articles and books.
We have therefore also published over 20 books since 1993. We also author hundreds of reports and articles annually. Many of these become accessible to wider groups by various means, and some are written directly for the broad general public.
In this section you can find books and reports to order, and articles that you can download free of charge.
Happy reading!
Books and reports
Our aim is to publish at least one or two books annually on topics of more general interest. The first Kairos book saw the light of day at around the same time as Kairos Future was founded. It was entitled Morgondagens värderingar (Tomorrow’s values), and was published in December 1992. It became a bestseller, and to date 10,000 copies have been sold. Many of our more recent books have also become bestsellers.
Each year we also make available a number of special reports to wider groups.
You can order books and reports here. You will shortly be able to purchase them from our e-bookshop.
The e-shop will present all our books and other publications. If you have any questions, send us an e-mail to info@kairosfuture.com or call us on +46(0)8 545 225 00.
The MeWe Generation
The MeWe Generation
MeWes are interpersonal individualists. The MeWes main goal in life is to increase their opportunities; they value alternatives by whether these will increase their opportunities or not. They are afraid of being stuck with no alternatives. They are optimists in terms of their own future. They believe that they will be able to achieve what they strive for.
The MeWes are what postmodern thinkers call "dividuals". They don't have one single identity, but an entire wardrobe of mes that they wear depending on the occasion. Although, or maybe as a consequence of, the MeWes high-speed life, friends are what matters most. Being adult is no longer something that is considered inevitable. It's an option, a lifestyle you can choose among other alternative lifestyles.
Mats Lindgren, Thomas Fürth, Bernhard Lüthi, Bookhouse Publishing 2005.
To order this book, please click here!
The MeWe generation on international blogs. Here is the list:
http://hmestrum.blogs.com/
http://www.corporateblogging.info/2005/06/mewe-generation-crying-out-for.asp
http://intressant.se/blogg/1117699510/mewe-generationen/
http://www.webpronews.com/news/news.html
http://www.skolmarknad.info/
http://www.bloglog.nl/index.php?viewblog=222
www.technorati.com/tag/mewe+generation
http://www.ifeedyou.com/corporateblogging/page/0/
Other links about the MeWe generation:
http://www.profuturists.com/profession/
http://news.dds.dk/index.php?id=795&type=2
http://www.friluftsraadet.dk/page.php?page=8634
http://www.lo-ungdom.dk/indlaeg/indlaeg.html
http://www.suntliv.nu/AFATemplates/Page.aspx?id=3747
Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning – the link between future and strategy
The first years of the new millennium have clearly pointed to the need to prepare for the unknown and uncertain futures. The dangers of failing to do this were shown in the aftermath of an insane race on the world stock markets. ICT and telecom shares hit new highs every week, but a year later they hit historic lows.
Could the downturn have been foreseen and prepared for, and thus even capitalised on? We believe so. Much of what happened was not unthinkable: it could have been pinpoined with the use of scenario planning.
In this book, we introduce the thinking behind scenario planning and provide our readers with some concepts, models and tools to take back to their own companies. It is based on almost two decades of experience of using scenario planning as a strategic tool. In this time, in ourcapacity as consultants, we have guided multinationals and medium-sized companies as well as government departments and non-governmental organisations in these approaches.
Mats Lindgren and Hans Bandhold, Palgrave Macmillan 2003
Read all information about the background of Scenario Planning and the authors here!
To order this book, please click here or go to: Amazon.co.uk
"Given the recent rise of uncertainty, writing a book about scenario planning is a brave move. However, Mats Lindgren and Hans Bandhold have done a great job in breaking down the elements of scenario planning and explaining why those elements are there and how they all interlink. They offer a multitude of tools, techniques and models for almost every situation an organisation could face and offer advice on how to use them effectively."
Reviewed by Steve Towells on behalf of the Strategic Planning Society. Steve is transaction manager in the legal department of Tokyo-Mitsubishi International plc and a Trustee of the SPS.
Welcome to the brand new world
The world where you have to "run for your life just to stay where you are, and run twice as fast in order to get anywhere", as the Queen said to Alice in Lewis Carroll’s novel “Through the Looking-Glass”.
But how do you succeed in such a restless and ever-changing world? The answer to that, scholars and practitioners say, is to be both structured and responsive – dedicated to a set of principles while at the same time being both flexible and alert. We call that jamming, because that’s what jamming is about. And the easiest way to develop a jamming organization is to switch from traditional planning to scenario planning.
In this book we go into the secrets of doing just that. . It’s a book aimed not only at planners but everyone who wants to make a difference.
Buy it. Read it. And join the Jamming revolution!
The book
The first years of the new millennium have clearly pointed to the need to prepare for the uncertain future . The dangers of inadequate preparation were shown in the aftermath of the insane race on the world’s stock markets in the late 1990s and early 2000s. ICT and telecoms shares hit new highs every week, but a year later they were at a historical low.
Could the downturn have been foreseen and prepared for? And could it thus even have been capitalized on? We believe so. Much of what happened was conceivable; it could have been imagined in advance.
Scenario planning is a powerful tool for anticipating and managing change at an industrial or environmental level, and scenario thinking is the strategic perspective necessary in today’s turbulent business environments. Scenario thinking incorporated into scenario planning is useful in almost any strategic question in corporate entities today. Scenario planning is clearly the link between futures thinking and strategic action, between creative and imaginative futurizing and a more hands-on strategic planning process. And strategic planning or strategizing without scenario thinking is almost redundant.
Our aim in this book is to introduce the concept of scenario thinking and scenario planning, and thus provide our readers with concepts, models and tools to take back to their own companies. It is based on almost two decades of experience of scenario planning as a strategic tool, where we as consultants have guided multinationals and medium-sized companies as well as governments and non-governmental organizations in these approaches.
Mats Lindgren and Hans Bandhold
Courses
Learn more about scenario planning or become a skilled scenario practitioner through a course in scenario planning.
For over a decade we have been giving courses from one-day introductions to half-semester university level courses, covering all aspects of the TAIDA-process for scenario planning.
One of our specialties is our management program "Scenario Strategist in 24 hours" which is often used as a “plug-in” in top and middle management programs.
Location: Amersfoort, the Netherlands
Schedule: 21-23 May 2008
Please register for the course here!
Please download the invitation for the course here!
For further information, please contact Sofia Johnsson at Kairos Future, +46 8 545 225 00.
Why scenario planning?
There are many reasons why you might benefit from a scenario-planning process.
The most common reason for setting a process of scenario-analysis in motion is that industrial structures are under pressure from new market players or technology. Rapid and fundamental change challenges old players to “wind-tunnel” existing business models, products or services, or to reinvent themselves (see figure below).
The benefits gained from this process, if carried out in a collaborative way, include:
- A shared understanding of fundamental changes in the business landscape
- A shared view of fundamental challenges and opportunities in the future business landscape
- New wind-tunnel tested strategies, vision, mission, business models etc
- An improved capability to handle future events that challenge the existing model.
TAIDA® – from future to action
For over a decade the TAIDA-model has been the most used scenario-based strategy model in Scandinavia. Hundreds of scenario projects have been carried out on the basis of the model in the past ten years – both expert-projects and more participative processes.
TAIDA stands for
Tracking
The first step in the TAIDA-process is tracking. The main purpose of this step is to trace and describe changes in the surrounding world that can have an impact on the question in focus.
Analyzing
With the tracking done, the next step is to analyze changes and generate scenarios.
Imaging
Once insights into plausible futures are established, it is time to create images of what is desired – i.e. visions.
Deciding
In this phase of the process we identify development areas and strategies to meet threats and achieve visions and goals.
Acting
Plans in themselves rarely give results. Acting is about taking action and following up.
The authors
Mats Lindgren and Hans Bandhold are two of the most experienced scenarioplanners in the marketplace. For two decades they have advised multinationals and government officials worldwide.
For the past decade they have been partners at Kairos Future, the leading futures research and strategy firm in Scandinavia, founded in 1993.
HANS BANDHOLD is senior partner at Kairos Future and head of its strategy division. He has a broad experience of coaching companies and organizations in future analysis and strategic orientation. Hans is the architect behind TAIDA-Lab – a unique environment in which executives get together with futurists and strategists to fish out and evaluate strategies that meet the demands of the future.
MATS LINDGREN is senior partner and managing director of Kairos Future, and head of its futures research division. He is the author of more than a dozen books and a seasoned speaker on a variety of topics. He holds a doctoral degree in business administration and specializes in strategic management in turbulent business environments. Mats Lindgren is also the author of several books in Swedish, and the co-author of “Beyond Mobile”, published by Palgrave Macmillan in 2002.
Reviews
Harvard Business School
Scenario planning combines scenario analysis and strategic planning. This is a serious book, yet it’s the friendliest introduction to the nuts and bolts of scenario planning that you are likely to find. Most charts are simple and smart, not spiders’ webs of zigzagging arrows. Chapters walk you through an overview followed by the basic principles of scenario and strategic thinking and offer a glimpse of scenario planning in practice. There is a fine glossary spelling out such jargon as back-casting ("a scenario technique where you start with an imagined future and then create a path to it") and EPISTLE (a seven-letter acronym for economy and market; politics; institutions and organizations; social changes; technology; legal changes; and ecology and ethics). Our favorite bit is a sample scenario on the future of crime, comparing computer hackers to Al Capone. The authors are with Kairos Future in Stockholm.
Strategic Planning Society
Given the recent rise of uncertainty, writing a book about scenario planning is a brave move. However, Mats Lindgren and Hans Bandhold have done a great job in breaking down the elements of scenario planning and explaining why those elements are there and how they all interlink. They offer a multitude of tools, techniques and models for almost every situation an organisation could face and offer advice on how to use them effectively.
Their main idea throughout the book is that strategic flexibility can be achieved through a scenario planning perspective for long-term competition and performance. They re-iterate these points by giving plenty of examples and referring to case studies.
The structure of the book is also good. The chapters are split into why it is needed, how it started, the academic view, the practitioner view and the differences between scenario thinking and strategic thinking. There is also an in-depth introduction to the TAIDA model (Tracking, Analysing, Imaging, Deciding and Acting).
This book is good for anyone interested in scenario planning, be they new to it or already seasoned in its application, or are just plain interested in its use. There is something in it for everyone. It reads well, is easy to follow and the regular appearance of case studies provide enough imagination to keep it from being entirely academic. Recommended.
Reviewed by Steve Towells on behalf of the Strategic Planning Society. Steve is transaction manager in the legal department of Tokyo-Mitsubishi International plc and a Trustee of the SPS.
Speeches
Mats Lindgren and Hans Bandhold are frequent speakers. Contact Petra Skaffloth at Kairos Future for more information or +46 8 545 225 00.
Beyond Mobile
Beyond Mobile
The advent of constant internet connectivity and mobile communications has already transformed the way that many business and organisations function. The further evolution of the mobile marketplace will make it possible for the consumer to compare prices, quality and available choice in a revolutionary way. Although much has been written about the technological side of these developments little has been said about what this all means for the individual. here, the authors examine what the mobile marketplace really is, how it will develop and exactly what the implications are for the market and, more importantly, for us.
by Mats Lindgren, Jörgen Jedbratt, Erika Svensson, Palgrave Macmillan.
To order the book, please click here or go to: Amazon.co.uk
Articles & Reports
Knowledge is the basis for everything! This section includes a number
of current articles that you can download free of charge.
Transformation in the U.S. Airline Industry since 9/11
2007 marks the first time that the United States airline industry will be profitable since the terrorist attacks on Sept 11, 2001. Over the past five years, the industry has lost a cumulative $40 billion through the combined pressure of severely reduced passenger loads and rising fuel prices.
The airlines could not pass rising operating costs on to customers because of intense competition and low passenger demand. Instead, they turned to cost cutting in the forms of reduced ground staff, eliminated in-flight meals and charging for curbside check-in.
For many airlines, these service-related cost cutting measures were not enough. Bankruptcy became an attractive option because it offered companies a way to back out of labor agreements, default on pension plans for retired workers and prematurely terminate facility contracts.
Out of the six major U.S. carriers, only American Airlines has been able to get through the turbulent years post 9/11 without filing for bankruptcy.
Read the whole article by our Regional Representative in the US, Ms. Sonja Källström, here!
China - Anything but middle
Kairos Future’s Research Associate in China Mr. Pete Andersen has written this startling article about the environmental situation in China.
The Middle Kingdom - as the Chinese denote it - is anything but “middle” in its character. China’s number crunching presence makes her extreme in any aspect you choose to pick.
You have read the headlines: Olympic Games, double digit growth, ravaging quest for raw materials, one child policy, corruption scandals, coastline/inland- rich/poor dichotomies. Last but not least, you have read about China's alarmingly poisoned and depleted environment. Being crucial for our children -and connecting with Kairos Future’s recent Global Youth Research- let me focus on the environment.
Read the whole article here! (PDF)
Chinese Youth
CHINESE YOUTH -
Down to earth people reaching for the stars
By: Ms. Anna Kiefer
Young middle-class Chinese are very optimistic about the future and they have great plans. Important in life is to have a prosperous career, high
status and earn a lot of money. Material possessions and fame are much
more important to young middle-class Chinese than to Europeans. At the
same time they emphasize the importance of spiritual values and they
are anxious to blend in. They want to be similar to their friends and
it is almost as important to live up to other people’s expectations as
your own. This dual loyalty is perhaps a result of the one-child policy.
Download and read the whole article here!
Read more about the survey Global Youth!
Consumers and lifestyles 2017
Where is the global community heading? Are we all becoming
middle-class Indians and Chinese with aspirations of wealth and worldly success? Or will Scandinavian soft values reign, emphasizing trust and
loyalty that goes beyond family and close friends?
Although there are strong tendencies that young people in the West are becoming
more “Chindian” in terms of values and attitudes, it is hard to tell
where we will end up ten years form now. There are tendencies and
trends pulling in different directions unfolding several scenarios for
the future consumer and values landscape. To consider those
uncertainties and alternative trajectories is essential for most
companies and organizations in today’s fast-moving and increasingly
consumer driven world.
Read the whole article here!
Read more about our service Kairos ConsumerScape!
Environmental pollution - who cares?
Anna Kiefer writes about environmental issues that are now in focus more than ever. The UN Conference on Climate Change was held on Bali 3-14 December 2007 with participants from over 180 countries, putting the environment as top priority on everybody’s agenda. The 2007 Nobel peace prize was awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Al Gore for their efforts to build up knowledge about climate change, and measures needed to counteract such change. But how is the political agenda reflected in the attitudes of the young people who will shape our future? Kairos Future’s survey of youth values and lifestyles indicates that environmental pollution is a problem for everyone and no one.
Download and read the whole article here!
European Youth in a Global Context
By Mrs. Anna Kiefer and Ms. Sofia Johnsson, March 2007
Today’s youth live in an increasingly globalized world, communi-cation channels become wider and distances become shorter, but more and more individuals trust only themselves and their loved ones. That is the conclusion of the new survey European Youth in a Global Context, made by Kairos Future.
With this project, Kairos Future extends its yearly youth values and lifestyle surveys in Sweden and Scandinavia to a truly interna-tional level. The aim of the survey is to provide companies, authorities and organizations with strategic information concern-ing future consumers, employees and citizens.
Read the whole article here!
Generational shift and future leadership roles
Kairos Future has conducted a survey on today’s top management’s views on the generational shift and on the future leadership roles. The survey was done in collaboration with Michaël Berglund Executive Search. We present the main findings in this article written by Ulf Boman and Anna Eldestrand!
Read the whole article here!
Generations that never learnt to cook
Once upon a time, not many decades ago, making soup, baking bread, serving up a suitable cheeseboard and at least three types of biscuits was well within the capability of most housewives. Back then, there weren’t many cookery books. Thickening, making white sauce, stewing, proofing dough, baking, preserving and other techniques were at the fingertips of every housewife, so there was no need to read up about them. Being able to bake and cook was just normal – everyone could do it, so it wasn’t worth boasting about. Of course, some were better at it than others. But if you couldn’t cook, well, that was a real stigma. Being a bad housewife/cook was about the worst name any woman could get for herself.
Read the whole article here!
In Search of Authenticity
New article by: Katarina Graffman
We live in a society that is becoming increasingly more obsessed with uncovering what is true and authentic and what is false and fake. Does it count if you reach the top of Mount Everest using oxygen tanks? Is the TV talkshow true life or rehearsed? What about that handbag – genuine Louis Vuitton? And are those plump lips the real thing?
As a steadily mounting flow of advertisements swamp our lives and our existence becomes increasingly more brand-related with the virtual and global permeating aspects of everyday life, human beings will become concerned about losing track of what’s truly authentic and our need for that which is genuine will grow stronger.
Download the article here!
New article: Challanges for Generation Ambition in Denmark
In a time of extremely low unemployment and increasing sick leave the welfare of the workforce is more crucial than ever. We face a situation with lack of skilled and unskilled staff and companies that search for new employees abroad. Meanwhile the expectations for economic growth in Europe are reduced.
This is very much reflected at the Danish job market and calls for initiatives and solutions.
A survey carried out by Kairos Future in six European countries, including Denmark, focuses on the age group 30 to 50 year-olds. How is this generation able to meet their own high ambitions, the increasing demands from employers and still lead a balanced life?
The survey paints a picture of the Danes as generally positive and optimistic people but still the generation faces the cost of high ambitions in all aspects of life.
Download and read the whole article here!
New article: Improve you decision making: Be a Scenario Strategist
By Dr. Mats Lindgren
For thousands of years, humans have made up scenarios, trying to explore not yet realized futures. Man is by definition a scenario-planning creature. We have been “creating” the future in our minds, exploring consequences of other’s actions as well as our own.
Nevertheless, most organizations are fairly poor scenario planners. They do not explore the uncertainties in the surrounding world and their potential consequences – threats and opportunities – for their own business. At least not in a systematic way, and definitely not on a continuous basis.
Download and read the whole article here!
New article: Tomorrow’s health consumers
Tomorrow’s health consumers – individualists with no illusions
Swedes have no illusions when it comes to public provision of preventative medicine and the treatment of illness, which are generally referred to as health and health care. Most of them currently see it as a right, but few of them believe it will be so ten years from now. The image of the future is almost identical regardless of political party sympathy; most rights to health care will be limited, and at the same time there will be a right to choose to pay for better care. This future picture also applies for left wing voters, according to a study of tomorrow’s health care consumers carried out by Kairos Future.
Download and read the full article here!
Please contact project leader Mr Mats Olsson for further information!
New media, new logics – how to influence the consumers of tomorrow
The advertising business is facing several substantial challenges in the years to come: intensified media-noice, a lack of marketing precision, the development of technological innovations to sift out commercials as well as understanding how to successfully design and measure the effect of advertising.
Consumers are experiencing and expressing an increased advertising fatigue. It seems we are approaching a future where consumers are trying to avoid advertising and where the media technology of the future increases the means and possibilities for them to do so. In addition to this recent studies have shown that the return on investment for traditional advertising is decreasing.
The challenge for marketers is how to address and reach these consumers. The report “New media, new logics” describes the media and logics of the future and ways for marketers to influence the consumers of tomorrow.
Schooling in Asia
By Mr. Per H. Nilsson and Mrs. Anna Kiefer
A closer look at education in Japan, China, India, Malaysia and Singapore. As part of Kairos Future's project "Schooling in 2021", our research associate in Malaysia, Mr. Per H. Nilsson, wrote a report on school systems in Asia. He describes a continent that is best and worst in the class at the same time, an educational culture marked by a Confucian tradition, parents devoted to maximizing the educational performance of their children and prevailing gender inequality. This article is a summary of his report.
Successful Leaders of the Future
In a complex world, competent and strong leaders are crucial in order to lead organizations into the future. As expectations and demands on managers are increasing, Swedish managers feel that the leadership role is becoming more difficult. Businesses are therefore facing a great challenge to recruit, develop and keep the right managers for the future.
So how do the successful managers behave? – those that, despite a more complex leadership role, still manage to be inspired, and creative and leaders that achieve great results? How can organizations get attractenable managers to be content with life and work and do a good job?
Read the whole article here!
Successful Sales Of the Future
One of tomorrow's success factors is spelled sales. In a world where
products become increasingly exchangeable, successful sales is turning
into a gradually more important key to success. But what is it that
creates sustainable achievements in sales in a world where competition
is increasing, clients become more and more selective and products,
services and sales processes become increasingly complex? What is it
that sales people and selling companies shall deliver - is it
experiences, or maybe even change, that will facilitate sales in the
future?
Read the whole brochure here!
The benefits of futures analysis
By: Mr. Per Florén
Situational analysis and futures analysis help organizations and people to act more realistically, preventatively and efficiently. Those who understand what may materialize get a head-start that can generate benefits and makes their own organizations better prepared, increasing their margins. This is valid for companies that are subject to competition in an open market as well as public organizations and NGOs. In this article, the basics of successful situational analysis and futures analysis are described.
The future of regulation
New article by Mrs. Anna Kiefer.
People living parallel lives in virtual worlds and other new phenomena challenge traditional legal systems. The Digital Age and globalization are the main driving forces of our times. They entail numerous legal challenges that our present legal systems are inadequate to solve. What are the challenges, what needs to be changed in order to maintain law and order and protect the interests of different parties simultaneously? Technology and lifestyles seem to be more important than citizens and politics. What does that imply for the future of regulation?
Read the whole article here!
The recipe for growth - creativity v/s entrepreneurship
Sweden is top of the class, the creative class, according to Richard Florida, American growth guru and super think tank generator. The top level of the Sweish society is eager to agree, but in a recent survey made by Kairos Future, Swedish top-level politicians, business people and opinion leaders are in fact less optimistic. The explanation for this may be found in a comparison of Florida's creativity index and the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor. Such comparison indicates poor connection between creativity according to Florida on the one hand and entrepreneurship on the other. Given that high creativity levels as such must be transformed into job creation through entrepreneurship to produce growth, the preparedness for the future is determined by more than mere creativity.
Tomorrow's TV
By Mr. Peter Siljerud and Dr. Katarina Graffman, Senior Consultants at Kairos Future
The TV industry is facing big challenges futurewise: increased media noise, zapping viewers that are hard to reach, internet downloads, new players such as newspapers and internet companies, etc. New technical phenomena as well as changing media consumption behavior will re-shape television immensely in ways unforeseen. Read more about the results of Kairos half-year study of the future of TV and the new upcoming and more general study about tomorrow's media consumption: Nordic Media Futures.
Young people and Integrity
By Mr. Peter Siljerud.
Computers, Internet and mobile phones are the most important gadgets
for young people. But what do they think about integrity? What type of
surveillance is accepted? What parts of their lives are regarded as
sensitive? Love, politics or their economy?
Kairos Future and the Swedish Data Inspection Board have asked 500 young Swedes what they think.
Read the whole article here!
Young People in Young Economies
Article, June 2007, by Ms. Elin Åström
What are young people in “young economies” like? This was the question in my mind when I traveled to Ukraine this spring. With the entry of emerging markets into the global economy it becomes increasingly important to understand the next generation in these countries. Are their dreams, priorities and ambitions different from the ones of young people in the developed world? It turns out that the answer to this question is largely: yes. Read on to find out what the differences are and where they come from.
Read the whole article here!
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